A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Alert

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."